I always hate it when someone drops into a forum, seeks advice, then is never heard from again. Since you were kind enough to weigh in on my plight, I figured I'd give you the short version of how this ended:
Nobody at the dealer would even hazard a guess as to what Ford would ding me for, and how much the bill would be. Ford exclusively uses a third party to do lease end inspections; the dealer is never involved other than as a mailbox for dropping off and picking up the cars, basically. My guess is Ford does that to take the dealer out of the equation. Otherwise, you could picture the dealer overlooking lots of things in the interest of selling a new vehicle. Just a guess.
Anyway, I'd gotten a quote from a highly-regarded wheel repair shop in the Chicago area of $200 each to recondition those wheels. In addition, with the dealer's help, we identified a number of other issues on the body. None seemed major, but several would have exceeded the lease-end guidelines. Again, nobody would speculate about which of them Ford would charge me for, let alone how much.
So, having settled on either a CR-V or an Escape (with a slight edge to the Escape), I set about cutting my best deal on one with the dealer. From the published data you can find at KBB or Edmunds, for example, I got a price well below market. I purposely hemmed and hawed about the lease return though, and the sales manager proposed that I basically pay him to take over the risk on damage. In the end, we added $800 to the price of the new Escape, and wrote out an agreement that if Ford sends me a bill for damage to the Edge, the dealer will take care of it. Maybe he'll get the better end of that deal, but to close off the risk on my side, for the same price I thought it would cost me to repair the wheels alone, seemed like a good solution to me.
So now I'll head over to the Escape (we wanted to downsize) forum. Thank for your input and best of luck with your Edges.
PS - My deal at Fox Ford Lincoln on Elston Ave in Chicago started off a little rocky, but Fred Dino (Sales Manager) and Evan Wolford (Product Specialist) did a great job going the extra mile to right the ship. They're in a beautiful, brand new, built-for-them facility, and if you're in the area, you should go check it out.